Almond blossom file photo

Blue Diamond Growers, the world’s largest almond cooperative, is estimating the 2026 California almond crop at 2.69 billion pounds, within a projected range of 2.675 to 2.72 billion pounds.

The estimate reflects early-season observations and data across the Central Valley, along with input from the cooperative’s nearly 3,000 grower-members spanning from Red Bluff to Mettler.

With changes to how the U.S. Department of Agriculture issues almond crop estimates, Blue Diamond is providing a scenario-based range intended to help stakeholders plan for the season ahead. The cooperative’s estimate draws on orchard-level comparisons, grower surveys, field assessments covering more than 12,000 miles of orchard coverage and regional acreage and yield data.

Range fits

“Crop estimating is never a single-number exercise — conditions can vary dramatically by region, variety, and orchard management,” said Mel Machado, chief agricultural officer of Blue Diamond Growers. “By sharing a range and the inputs behind it, we aim to provide a practical, early framework that reflects what our team is seeing in the field and hearing directly from growers.”

“Our cooperative was built to bring stability and market access for California almond farming families,” said Jeff Hatfield, chief global supply officer of Blue Diamond Growers. “Providing a clear, data-informed outlook supports better planning and helps reduce surprises that can create unnecessary volatility for growers and customers alike.”

The report notes that in-season conditions — including heat events, pest pressure, water availability and orchard investment decisions — can materially influence final receipts.

Economics

Grower economics are weighing heavily on crop potential. According to the report, grower returns fell below $2 per pound in four of the past five years, often below production costs. As a result, some growers have cut essential activities including pest management and nutrition programs, reducing overall yields. In the most severe cases, some growers abandoned orchards because they could no longer afford basic operations.

Growers are also facing higher input costs for 2026, with fuel rising an estimated 50%, energy costs for groundwater pumping increasing steadily and fertilizer up 30% from last year, driven largely by conflict in the Middle East.

Acreage

The report marks a significant milestone for California almond acreage. Land IQ estimates 1,398,081 standing acres for 2026 and 1,385,870 bearing acres after accounting for 12,211 acres projected to be removed by Aug. 31 — the first decline in bearing acreage since 1995. The reduction reflects fewer new plantings in the southern San Joaquin Valley, with modest gains in the Sacramento Valley and northern San Joaquin Valley where water is more reliable, though yields are typically lower.

Water

The Sustainable Groundwater Management Act and inconsistent snowpack are reshaping the consistency of California’s water supply. Fresno, Kern and Madera counties — three of the top four counties by almond acreage — are seeing the greatest impact and account for 44% of 2025-26 orchard removals. State and federal water allocations remain low at 30% and 20% respectively, even as reservoirs sit above historical averages. Weak snowpack this past winter is expected to limit runoff and force water conservation through the season.

Blue Diamond said it will share updates in its June Market Report and July Crop Forecast Report.