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published on December 2, 2021 - 10:53 AM
Written by The Business Journal Staff

A peek into next year’s housing market suggests affordability will continue to slide for first-time buyers nationwide with demand continuing to outpace construction and interest rates increasing to counter inflation.

In Fresno, forecasts the region will outpace the state’s other major metros in both sales and prices.

Researchers with the residential real estate institution predict sales to grow in Fresno by 3.7% and prices to increase 5.9%.

Anecdotally , the region has welcomed those fleeing more expensive markets as remote work allows people to live in the more modestly-priced Central Valley while still earning Bay Area wages.

Home sales in both San Francisco and San Jose areas are predicted to shrink 5.2% and 4%, respectively. While year-over-year sales decline, they predict prices to increase 5.5% and 4.2% respectively.

Los Angeles is also expected to experience a year-over-year decline in sales by 1.6% and a 4.8% increase in prices.

Home sales in San Diego are expected to stay nearly the same at an increase of 0.2% and rising sale prices of 4.8%.

Bakersfield home sales are anticipated to decline by 4.2% and home prices could increase by 6.1%.

Home sales in Stockton are expected to increase 1% and prices to increase by 7.8%.

The nationwide inventory gap of 5.2 million homes may shrink a bit, researchers forecast, and home building production may increase 5% year-over-year.

Millennials account for 53% of prospective buyers and researchers expect that number to only increase. Researchers anticipate income to grow 3.3% by the end of 2022.

First-time buyers will be pressured to move quickly as rents are expected to rise at a faster rate than home prices. Home prices are forecast to increase 2.9% compared to 7.1% for rents nationwide.

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