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While President Trump’s crackdown on illegal immigration has led to more attention on the plight of farm work crews, there is another industry that could see some fallout.

The U.S. construction industry employs nearly 1.6 million undocumented immigrants, according to reports based on U.S. Census Data and other surveys.

A 2021 study by the Center for American Progress, a public policy, research and advocacy organization based in Washington, D.C., determined that laborers are the largest share of undocumented construction workers with 445,800, carpenters are second at 225,600, painters and paper hangers at third with 167,300, and roofers are fourth at 75,600.

According to an estimate by the Center for Migration Studies, there are approximately 283,000 undocumented immigrants who work in the United States as agricultural workers.

 

Uncertain policy effects

Beginning the week of Jan. 6, U.S. Customs and Border Protection operations took place around Kern Count, with dozens of arrests.

In the Central Valley, there were reports of entire crews of immigrant farmworkers not showing up to work out of fear of immigration raids. A statement from the California Farm Bureau Federation on Jan. 30 said the organization hadn’t heard of any widespread workforce disruptions.

Darren Rose, president of the Building Industry Association of Fresno/Madera Counties, said construction labor demand started to pick up in 2024, with many firms wanting to build homes. That demand is continuing into this year.

Rose said the impacts of Trump’s immigration policy on labor remain to be seen.

“We haven’t seen any changes so far,” Rose said. “None of my builders directly employ construction labor. They contract with companies that build homes, or commercial facilities, so we haven’t seen any changes yet.”

He said he hasn’t heard from builders that crews are not showing up to the worksite out of fear of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

 

Demand curve

Rose said there is anticipation of increased activity in the near future due to the destruction of the Los Angeles County wildfires that occurred in January.

Demand and competition for labor will increase, with wages in Southern California higher compared to those in the Central Valley, he said.

Rose said there is a possibility that Central Valley construction workers will go south for those opportunities.

Because of the destruction, there is a possibility that people living in the Los Angeles area might relocate to the Central Valley. Rose noted over the last two decades families from the Bay Area and Southern California have settled in the Central Valley, driving demand for homes.

 

Economy and tariffs

Trump’s proposed tariffs on countries including Canada, Mexico and China could have effects on construction materials and resources.

“Lumber is imported from Canada,” Rose said. “Reciprocal tariffs will all play a role in increasing costs for homebuilding. The California fires will also create a huge demand for construction materials — lumber, electrical wiring, concrete — all the inputs that go into building homes, commercial or industrial projects.”

When there is increase in demand, and a limited supply, prices tend to increase, Rose said.

The outlook for the construction workforce remains robust.

 

Workforce efforts

There are several organizations, schools and construction companies in the Central Valley collaborating to help get more people into the trades, especially younger people and women.

Some of these organizations include the Fresno Regional Workforce Development Board with its ValleyBuild Now pre-apprenticeship, Fresno EOC’s Valley Apprenticeship Connections and the State Building and Construction Trades Council.

Swinerton, a leading general contractor with offices in Fresno, sponsors programs and provides mentorship to local high school construction competition teams.

Swinerton participates in the Construction Industry Education Foundation Design Build Competition, which has been a great resource to connect with students interested in joining the construction trade, said Erich Klemme, senior superintendent at Swinerton.

The competition provides students an opportunity to display their skills and audition for full-time employment after graduation.

“We hired a student from last year’s competition team. She was a top performer, and has since been sponsored into the carpenters union, and is working full-time on the Swinerton Central Valley’s concrete crew,” Klemme said about Jacqueline Pereida

He said the team at Swinerton believes programs like the Design Build Competition will continue to produce local talent, as well as spark a passion in students for construction.