From left, Sullivan Grosz of Pearson Realty, Jason Farris of FresYes Realty, Jeff Kim of Colliers and Corrine Demetreos of D.R. Horton discuss residential real estate and homebuilding trends at the Fresno County EDC's annual Real Estate Forecast at the DoubleTree Inn in downtown Fresno on Thursday. Photo by Gabriel Dillard

Housing affordability, limited developable land and elevated mortgage rates are some of the trends shaping Fresno’s residential real estate outlook for 2026 and beyond.

But one truth remains, say local industry leaders: Fresno continues to be one of California’s last affordable markets. 

During a panel discussion at the Fresno County Economic Development Corp.’s 2026 Real Estate Forecast, panelists discussed a range of topics including constrained availability of developed lots, buyers waiting for rates or prices to decline and pressure from high mortgage rates.

Where to build?

For builders, land supply remains a major challenge. Corine Demetreos, vice president of forward planning and land development for D.R. Horton said entitlement delays continue to cause problems for new housing production.

“One of the biggest concerns is the availability of developable lots,” Demetreos said, noting that it takes anywhere from 18 to 36 months to move raw land through the entitlement process. 

Demetreos said that the delays, in addition to infrastructure conditions and mitigation fees, are passed to buyers. 

“It just drives up the cost of housing,” Demetreos said. 

Out of reach

These pressures are increasing the already high affordability concerns. The median price of a new home in the Fresno metro is $598,537, according to industry statistics cited in the Real Estate Forecast program. 

An estimated 82.78% of households are unable to afford that price point.

Even small increases put some homes out of reach. In Fresno, a $1,000 increase in a new home’s price would price out an additional 176 households. 

Locked in by rates

Inventory is improving on the resale market, but financing conditions continue to stall movement. Jason Farris, the president of the Fresno Association of Realtors, said inventory is up 10% year over year, but many homeowners remain locked into low-rate mortgages. 

“Fifty percent of mortgages right now are at 4% or lower,” Farris said. “How do you trade in this 3% mortgage for a 6.5% mortgage?”

Fresno County’s median resale price is about $405,000, down around 1.3% from a year ago, while homes are taking nearly two months to sell, nearly double from a year ago. 

Active listings have risen to roughly 3,200, while 98.3% sale-to-list ratio suggests that buyers have gained some negotiating leverage. 

Farris said that sellers need to adjust their expectations. 

“If they price to sell, they’ll sell,” he said. “If they price to test the waters, they’re just going to be testing their patience.”

All roads lead here

Despite the challenges, both Farris and Demetreos said that there still is opportunity, mainly for buyers who are ready to test the waters. 

“What you’re going to see is smaller lots, and even some smaller houses on some smaller lots,” Demetreos said. “There’s a lot of people that want to buy a home, and they don’t need a big mansion — they just need home ownership.”

“The opportunity is in Fresno. It just is,” Farris said, citing price gaps with coastal California markets like Los Angeles and San Francisco. “If you’re looking to build wealth in California in 2026, all roads lead to Fresno.”