California is often seen through a coastal-inland lens, but public opinion in the inland part of the state is not uniform. We recently explored geographic variation in opinion across the state, then zoomed in on Southern California, and finally mapped out opinion across the state’s new congressional districts. Now we turn to the Central Valley, where communities differ sharply from one another on many issues. With the fall election fast approaching, zooming in helps set the stage for the votes to come.
Our map of the Central Valley runs from Placer, El Dorado, and Yolo Counties in the north to Kern County in the south and includes Mono and Inyo Counties along the state’s eastern border. (We also included Kern in our discussion of Southern California.) The 11 Central Valley regions we examine are home to about 4.6 million voting-age citizens; Sacramento, Fresno/Madera, and Kern are among the area’s largest regions.
We look at a range of what can be roughly categorized as political views (approval of President Trump, preferences about paying lower or higher taxes and having fewer or more government services, views on immigrants as beneficial, support for abortion rights) and affordability concerns (worries about paying bills, covering housing costs, and housing affordability as a big regional problem). We find that political views and affordability concerns vary in interesting ways across regions, and the two are not always aligned.
Political views
Across the Central Valley, the share of registered voters expressing approval of Trump is lowest in Yolo (25%) and Sacramento (29%) and highest in Kern (47%) and the far east region (55%). But mapping the Central Valley’s political divide is not as simple as drawing lines between a north and south and an east and west. In the northern Placer and El Dorado regions, the shares approving of Trump (37% each) are similar to those in Merced (35%) and Fresno/Madera (36%), in the south. However, the share supporting abortion rights in Placer and El Dorado (68% each) is similar to the statewide share (70%) and much higher than the shares in Merced (59%), Fresno/Madera (59%), and Kern (57%).
That said, the Yolo and Sacramento regions are the Central Valley’s liberal standouts. Not only does Yolo have the lowest level of Trump approval (25%), but it also has the highest support for a larger government with higher taxes (53%, vs. 45% statewide), as well as the most positive views of immigrants (72%) and the highest level of support for abortion rights (75%). In the Sacramento region, 71% support both immigrants and abortion access, and it is the only other region where support for a larger government (47%) exceeds the state level.
By contrast, the far east is the only region with majority approval of Trump (55%), and the only region in which fewer than half see immigrants as a benefit (48%).
Alongside these political differences, there is also some common ground:
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- Majorities in every region support abortion access, including the far east (65%); support ranges from 54% in Kings/Tulare to 75% in Yolo.
- Majorities in most regions see immigrants as a benefit, though only Yolo and Sacramento match the statewide share holding this view (68%).
- In most regions, the shares with a preference for a larger government are lower than the statewide share—as low as 33% in San Joaquin and 34% in El Dorado.
Affordability concerns
Concerns about affordability are particularly prevalent in the San Joaquin Valley area (San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Merced, Madera, Fresno, Kings, Tulare, and Kern counties). While the shares of Placer and El Dorado residents (21% each) who worry about paying their bills every day or almost every day are close to the statewide share (20%), levels of concern are much higher in Kings/Tulare (38%), Kern and Merced (37%), Fresno/Madera (36%), Stanislaus (33%), and San Joaquin (32%).
Housing affordability is a statewide issue in California, but concern about housing has grown fastest in the interior in recent years, as residents priced out of coastal regions have moved inland and driven up prices there as well. Concerns about the regional affordability of housing in Yolo (70%), Placer (69%), and Sacramento (68%) are very similar to the statewide share (70%), while the share who see housing as a big problem in their area is much lower in Merced (55%) and Kings/Tulare (57%).
By contrast, concern about paying for one’s own housing is highest in the southern regions: 36% in Kern, Merced, and Kings/Tulare and 35% in Fresno/Madera, versus 23% in Placer and El Dorado (and 27% statewide).
Taken together, our maps of the Central Valley show a region with a more nuanced range of views than is often assumed. Its northern regions tend to sit closer to the statewide views on several issues, and its southern regions report some of the state’s heaviest financial strain. Understanding the Valley means resisting the urge to treat it as a monolith and instead seeing a region where politics and affordability do not necessarily align.
