Fresno County asparagus harvest photo by Edward Smith

The UC Merced Community and Labor Center released a new analysis last week on immigration enforcement actions launched by the Trump administration, concluding that they have disrupted California’s economy and contributed to a noticeable drop in reported private-sector work during intensified raids in early June.

Researchers analyzed employment trends before and during the period of heightened enforcement, specifically between May 11 and June 8, 2025.

According to the report, private-sector employment in the state declined by 3.1% during this short window.

The decline was numerically greater among U.S. citizens than noncitizens, with women experiencing the sharpest drop in employment.

During the same period, there was no comparable decline in U.S. male citizen employment, which slightly increased in some areas. Employment among noncitizens and women otherwise held steady outside targeted regions.

The report states that federal actions led many noncitizens to avoid work, school and other public spaces, causing declines in consumer activity, business operations and employment overall.

California had 15.2 million workers in May, dropping to 14.8 million in June—a 3.1% decrease.

Between May and June, the number of working Latinos in California fell from 6.5 million to 6.2 million. White workers decreased from 4.9 million to 4.7 million—a 5.3% decline.

“We have reason to suspect that immigration enforcement will further escalate in California and the rest of the U.S.,” the report reads.

Recent developments suggest there may be a reduction in the types of federal enforcement actions that have been associated with drops in reported private-sector employment.

Congress recently allocated $160 billion for immigration enforcement and deportation. Neither lawmakers nor the Supreme Court have challenged the administration’s efforts to pursue broad and indiscriminate enforcement actions.

“Given the historic magnitude of the effects of recent federal actions on California’s private-sector employment, state lawmakers should begin planning and developing a major economic stimulus and disaster package — for all workers,” the report concluded.