Just-harvested Rainier cherries are processed at Warmerdam Packing near Hanford in this 2019 photo. Photo by David Castellon

What if you imagined a cherry crop and nobody showed? In 2025, you don’t have to imagine, said Mark Calder of Primavera Marketing based in Linden in San Joaquin County.

“This year’s California cherry crop volume is very, very, very (add lots more ‘verys’) poor,” he shrugs.

The big factor has been erratic weather, including “a poor dormancy period for the buds based in part on a lack of chill hours,” he said.

“After back to back bumper crops in the past two years, I think we will be talking about how bad this year’s crop is for decades to come,” he said.

As of May 8, “we are in the second week of the harvest and there are no more cherries being picked in the South Valley” where the state’s harvest begins. “Fresno south – we are done.” He adds that south of Modesto, in a few days, there will be no fruit.

Chill hours refer to the number of hours fruit trees need to spend below a certain temperature (usually 45°F) during winter to break dormancy and produce fruit. Without sufficient chill hours, trees may not bloom, bloom late or produce fruit of diminished quality.

Experts say chill hours have been heading south in recent decades.

The weather was volatile during the bloom period throughout the state, Calder says. Even this week, with temps that threatened the century mark, just a few days later it is expected to turn chilly and rain in the prime cherry harvest area south of Sacramento, said Calder. The poor crop this year will mean growers will not have volume for Memorial Day promotions in Midwest and Eastern markets this year.

Fresno, Kings and Tulare counties all had good years in 2023, the latest year we have numbers for. Fresno County generated $96 million from the cherry harvest on 4,300 acres. Tulare and Kings generated about $26 million in cherry sales each. Tulare has 2,400 acres and Kings around 1660.

You would think cherry farmers might be worried about tariffs for their export market, but not this year with little volume expected to go to Asian markets, typically big profit centers.

Not that the fruit this year is bad, “it’s delicious” notes Calder, if you can get hold of some.

Cherries are the first tree fruit to be harvested in the Valley. Plum, peach and nectarine harvest comes in the next few weeks.