The California Aqueduct, part of the State Water Project, is seen in this aerial photo by the Fresno County Sheriff's Office.

The California Department of Water Resources announced this week that it has updated its water allocation forecast for 2025 to 15% of requested supplies — up from an initial forecast of 5%.

The State Water Project (SWP) operated by the Department of Water Resources (DWR) provides water to 29 public water agencies serving 27 million Californians.

Strong storms in late November and early December helped boost statewide precipitation to just above average for this time of year. Reservoir levels have also increased because of the storms. Prior to the second half of November, the start of the water year had been dry and warm.

State Water Contractors, an association of 27 public water agencies in California, released a statement saying the increase is encouraging but also highlights the limitation of the state water infrastructure and regulatory framework.

“The Department of Water Resources’ updated 15% allocation for the State Water Project demonstrates a responsive approach to California’s evolving climate challenges,” said Jennifer Pierre, general manager, State Water Contractors. “We appreciate DWR making this early adjustment to reflect the benefits of recent storms not factored into their initial allocation. While the increase is encouraging, allocations remain conservative, and this situation underscores the precarious balance of our water supply system in the face of unpredictable weather patterns.”

Each year, DWR provides SWP allocation forecasts based on available water storage, projected water supply, and water demands. Allocations are updated monthly as snowpack, rainfall, and runoff information is assessed, with a final allocation typically determined in May or June. As the winter progresses, if California sees an increase in rain and snowfall, the allocation forecast may increase. The next update will likely come in January and will use information from the first snow surveys of the season.