Almond photo by Marcia Cripps via unsplash.com.

California could expect a near record-breaking crop of almonds as harvest season approaches and growers face an uncertain export market.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture recently released its objective measurement report for 2025, finding that California growers are on track to harvest 3 billion meat pounds, up 10% from last year’s crop of 2.73 billion meat pounds.

The record almond harvest came in 2020 with 3.11 million meat tons, according to the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics services.

The forecast took the industry by surprise and reinforced the need to develop and maintain markets. The U.S. has worked out trade deals with a number of countries, but the threat of retaliatory tariffs remain.

“The Almond Board is actively driving initiatives to stimulate demand around the world,” said Clarice Turner, president and CEO of the Almond Board of California. “While this year’s Objective Measurement estimate is higher than the industry expected, shipments remain strong. We are focused on innovation—expanding almond applications, reaching consumers through new channels, and opening markets around the world.”

Following the forecast report, almond prices dropped nearly 20%, undoing much of the pricing momentum that had built up after the 2024 crop came in below expectations, according to a report from PACT Capital, a direct farming lender based in Fresno.

Along with a drop in prices, almond growers are facing several headwinds, according to the PACT report.

The Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) is forcing cuts in groundwater pumping in chronically over-drafted basins, leaving some orchards unfarmed or abandoned.

Orchards without access to surface water are seeing yield declines and increased stress due to the  water cuts.

Major bee colony losses aren’t helping almond orchards either.

Most almond varieties rely on bees for pollination, with over 2 million honeybee colonies to pollinate roughly 1.4 million acres of orchards.

Commercial beekeeping operations reported an average loss of 62% of their colonies from June 2024 to early 2025. 

The PACT Capital report notes that the USDA forecast “may be too wide,” noting that forecasts for each of the past three years have overshot actual production.

Almonds mean big business in the Central Valley.

In 2023, almonds dropped to the second top crop in Fresno County with a gross value of $1.4 billion.

Kings County saw 41,596 tons for its almond crops in 2023, with a $130.6 million total.

In Tulare County, 113,000 tons of almonds were harvested with a $365 million value in 2023.

In Madera County, a total of 132,000 tons of almonds were harvested with a $423.3 million value.