With the reborn Madera Community Hospital in January 2025, Madera County has much to be thankful for. Other large projects in the pipeline include Gunner Ranch, “Village D” and North Fork Mono Casino & Resort. Adobe Stock Image

Editor’s note: The Business Journal published its 2026 Regional Economic Forecast issue on Nov. 28. This is one of those stories.

Madera County is poised to continue its growth into 2026 despite economic uncertainty, inflationary pressures and higher interest rates, expanding opportunities for commercial activity, housing, education, entertainment, business and employment opportunities.

Despite state and national pressures on the region, Madera County saw the completion of major projects to bolster the area’s economy, including the renovation and reopening of Madera Community Hospital in March. Chowchilla saw the opening of the AutoZone Distribution Center, and a continued buildout of its residential master-planned communities.

The North Fork Mono Casino and Resort is currently under construction and expected to open by summer 2026, creating about 1,000 jobs.

With more homes going up to support current Central Valley families, and outsiders looking to move in, the Madera County has ranked as the California’s No 1 fastest-growing county from 2024-2025, according to the California Department of Finance.

Home grown

Kristina Gallagher, executive director of the Madera Economic Development Commission (EDC), said they are focused on attracting new investment and keeping the county as a place where economic opportunity aligns with quality of life.

Gallagher said that there is no “crystal ball” for an economic forecast, but based on past reports and current activity, the outlook is strong.

“Overall, we are probably going to continue to see population growth and that’s thanks to all the new housing and ongoing development. I think that by 2025 Madera County is expected to stay in that steady growth mode, and we are going to continue to see job expansion and a stronger labor market — specifically in health care,” Gallagher said.

Madera County’s industrial market remains strong and highly competitive with a 0.8% vacancy rate, well below the five-year 3.1% and 10-year 2.1% averages, according to the Madera EDC Annual Report.

Only 140,000 square feet available, with 56,000 square feet underway versus the 10-year average of 150,000.

New construction is limited and there is a high demand.

Future homes, retail

On the retail side, Gallagher said there is a 5.7% vacancy rate, which is slightly higher than historical norms, but the EDC is working with a range of companies that are exploring moving into the area and expanding their operations in the county and the city of Madera.

But she noted that as the housing supply grows, so will retail.

While Riverstone and Tesoro Viejo are still building out their communities, there are several others in the design and planning stages.

The Preserve at Millerton Lake has pulled 22 single-family dwelling units between July 1, 2024, and June 30, 2025.

Gunner Ranch West is a fully entitled-mixed-used proposed development located adjacent to Valley Children’s hospital campus, with plans including residential neighborhoods, parks, open space, trails and community facilities.

The Villages at Almond Grove is in the planning design phase with infrastructure work underway. Located in the City of Madera, it will include nearly 10,800 homes, 2.1 million square feet of commercial space, parks and school sites.

The Tozer III Pecan-Tozer Residential Project is a new single-family home community by Crown Homes that is currently in preconstruction.

Located on the east side of Tozer Street between Avenue 13 ½ and East Pecan Avenue, the subdivision will feature 168 homes across approximately 29 acres.

Rancho Calera, a 561-acre mixed-use community east of Highway 99 in Chowchilla, is planned for up to 2,042 homes, parks, schools, commercial space and trails. Phase one, with 140 lots, is underway and development remains active.

Century Communities is in the process of building Orchard View, a multi-phase development of approximately 203 homes within the city limits of Chowchilla.

Coming soon

Raley’s O-N-E Market has been announced to be a part of the 61,000 square foot expansion of retail space at Riverstone’s Riverwalk development on Avenue 12 and Highway 41. Construction is set to being early next year, with a grand opening planned for the Spring of 2027.

Himat Investment, based in Madera, is pushing forward with a new commercial development at the southwest corner of Olive and Tozer streets, with entitlements approved and permits under review. The 2.5 acre site will include a convenience store, gas station with 12 fueling stations and a drive-thru car wash.

Gallagher said that small businesses will also continue to look to the county, and there are a lot of calls from business owners for an EDC-administered small business loan program through the City of Madera.

There are many applications for small businesses being submitted, with one recently being approved, which hasn’t happened since 2022, Gallagher said.

Happy trails

The travel and tourism outlook for Madera County is looking positive, said Rhonda Salisbury CEO at Yosemite Sierra Visitors Bureau.

Salisbury said that international visitors continue to travel to the area.

In 2025, reservations for Yosemite National Park were announced late and many people made other plans, Salisbury said.

She predicts that the National Park Service will announce the plans for next year within the next few weeks to allow travelers to make plans ahead of time.

Yosemite National Park’s reservation systems did dampen visitor numbers in the last few years, but not as much in 2025, Salisbury said.

“Next year we do not know what is going to happen, but we think the park’s reservation system impact will be minimal,” Salisbury said.