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Fresno State Professor Andres Jauregui, director of the Gazarian Real Estate Center at the Craig School of Business, co-authored a research article on how property values can influence homeowning voters to switch political parties. 

“Housing Performance and the Electorate,” co-written by Erin Cifci from Austin Peay State University, Alan Tidwell from the University of Alabama, J. Sherword Clements from Virginia Tech, and Jauregui. The article was published in the Journal of Real Estate Research.

Jauregui and the professors tested a hypothesis that voters are motivated to vote for the party they perceive as beneficial to their property values. This study surveyed how local housing markets affected county-level voting patterns across the United States during the past six presidential elections.

“Our study confirms that voters are significantly concerned about the value of their homes and will reflect these concerns at the polls,” Jauregui said in a Fresno State News article.

They found a significant correlation between housing prices and voter behavior. Voters in counties that have substantial real estate prices four years before an election were likelier to switch parties to support incumbents.

In contrast, voters in counties with declining real estate prices were likelier to switch parties to support challengers.

The research reported that the correlation is strongest in the years closest to an election and in counties with the highest property values. Counties where the majority vote frequently switches between parties are sensitive to changes in local real estate prices.

Jauregui and his colleagues studied whether the current high price of real estate would swing the election in favor of the incumbent candidate. Jauregui said the effect on voting patterns is subtle, but steady property values might make a difference in crucial divided counties.

“The empirical evidence indicates that housing market performance in swing counties could be more of a determining factor than previously thought,” Jauregui said.

This study is the first investigation of how property values affect voting. It has attracted coverage from The American Prospect, Newsweek, Realtor, AOL, the UK-based website This Is Money, and other media outlets.