One of the biggest storylines heading into 2025 for Fresno when it comes to the business community is the South Central Specific Plan.

INVEST Fresno Chairman and Newmark Pearson Commercial Senior Vice President Ethan Smith says the City of Fresno is “paralyzed” in figuring out how to implement the plan if it proceeds.

The official City of Fresno website states, “The South Central Specific Plan is an area characterized by development that maximizes economic benefit and job growth for residents while reducing impacts on the environment and improving quality of life.”

The plan as proposed in the 5,600-acre planning area would reduce heavy industrial acreage by 17%, and require downzoned (business park, light industrial) land use buffers between heavy industrial and sensitive uses. It would also assign residential land use designations to existing parcels with residences.

Fresno Chamber of Commerce President Scott Miller will also closely monitor the South Central Specific Plan. It goes before the Fresno City Council on Dec. 5.

“The South Central Plan is going to be a huge deal for local employment,” Miller said.

Smith believes if Fresno is able to come up with a balance that does not hamper existing businesses, it could have an opportunity to attract new development and companies.

“It has an opportunity as a city to hopefully attract some new development because right now, those companies are bypassing Fresno if they’re looking for a Central California location,” Smith said. “Their focus has been, and will likely continue to be, on nearby communities along the 99 corridor, including Madera and some of the southern Fresno County towns like Fowler, Selma and Kingsburg.”

 

Right direction?

Miller also noted that Fresno’s unemployment rates are heading in the right direction.

“Our unemployment is down a little bit,” Miller said. “Our property values have remained strong, even though in some other places, that’s not the case. So I believe that those trends are going to carry forward, and we’re looking forward to that.”

Another area Smith highlighted was the reduced uncertainty in commercial real estate now that the election has concluded, although there are still questions.

“We have some certainty now about what the next four years are going to look like,” Smith said.

After a down year in 2023 across multiple sectors, 2024 is concluding positively to inspire confidence for Fresno County in 2025 and beyond.

In 2022, apartment sales were the highest they’ve been since first being recorded in 2007.

In 2023, sales declined by 63%, according to a report from the Fresno County Economic Development Corporation (EDC).

Robin Kane, the managing director at Northmarq, believes that the decrease in sales was due to the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates to combat inflation.

Although sales didn’t reach where they were in 2022, 2024 was a step in the right direction from 2023. The Fed didn’t make as many cuts as anticipated this year, but still enough to improve market conditions and investor sentiment.

 

Ballot impacts

Another boost for the market was the failure of the Proposition 33 rent control initiative, which eased concerns among the multi-family sector, which Kane specializes in for Northmarq.

Next year will likely be another challenging year, but Kane believes President-elect Donald Trump’s administration will help. However, with Trump not being able to run for re-election in 2028, Kane thinks something needs to happen sooner than later.

“(Trump’s) got one shot right now, going into the spring,” Kane said. “This current congress. He’s got it since he has it. Optimism is high, but there are a lot of headwinds that he’s going to have to get through, like the Fed, the Congress and things like that.”

Although there are still questions about the future, Kane says the industry is in a better spot going forward than during the pre-election period.

“We may fall short of being able to meet everyone’s expectations there, but still, it’s modest growth,” Kane said. “Nothing wrong with that.”

 

Retail franchise

Ali Nekumanesh, the executive vice president for Deli Delicious Franchising, shared their plans for 2025. With 20 locations in the surrounding Fresno area, Nekumanesh plans to expand the popular sandwich chain to other states.

“On the Franchise side, we hope to expand into the ‘sister states’ markets such as Utah, Nevada, Arizona and Oregon,” Nekumanesh said. “Our franchisees in the Bakersfield and L.A. area may be interested in expanding their holdings. First and foremost, it is expected that the QSR (Quick Service Restaurant) market nationally will grow, with revenues forecasted to reach above $630 billion by the year 2030.”

He also shared some of the challenges that could arise in the coming years.

“In California, there is always the ongoing threat of over/unnecessary regulations,” Nekumanesh said. “The challenges remain, including the attacks on QSR segment (Fast Food Council), Labor Costs, Menu Price Increases due to Labor and Food Costs resulting in reduced Transactions as the result of the consumers’ resistance to frequent QSRs. For the Franchising Segment, the costs of borrowing and operations will remain a challenge.”

Greg Newman, president of the Clovis Chambers of Commerce, one of Fresno’s fastest-growing suburbs, is looking towards a successful 2025 with the continued development of Loma Vista, a shopping center, and the development in the surrounding areas of Clovis Community College.