Almond photo by Marcia Cripps via unsplash.com.

The numbers are in, and California can expect a slightly larger almond crop this year, despite complications related to record rainfall.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its California Almond Objective Measurement Report this week, forecasting that 2023’s crop of 2.6 billion pounds will be 1% higher than last years 2.57-billion-pound crop.

The increase comes after one of the wettest winters on record, which limited bee flights and pollination activity. The result was delayed maturity for the crop.

The forecasted yield is 1,800 pounds per acre, down 20 pounds from last year and the lowest since 2009, according to the Almond Board of California.

The slight increase in the harvest forecast is due partly to larger nut size.

“Almond farmers have faced a series of challenges in recent years, and this wet, cool winter and spring created different obstacles after three years of drought. Yet the forecast for a larger crop shows the resiliency of California almond orchards,” said Richard Waycott, president and CEO of the Almond Board of California. “Almond farmers have worked hard while dealing with higher production and financing costs and a bloom with highly compromised bee flight hours. They are very thankful, however, for the abundant rain and snow which vastly improved the water situation, at least for now, and for shipping logistics that continue to improve. The perseverance of California’s almond farmers is admirable as is their commitment to meet future growth in global demand with high quality California almonds.”

The forecast is based on 1.38 million bearing almond acres in California, up 2% from 2022.

For the forecast, 1,824 trees in 912 Golden State almond orchards were sampled by July 3.

Last year’s almond crop was valued at $3.5 billion by the USDA — well below a record crop value of $6.1 billion in 2019, when the price per pound was $2.45. Last year’s price was $1.40 per pound.

Ample inventory and disruptions to the supply chain are seen as reasons behind the lower prices.