The Fresno County Economic Development Corporation hosted its 20th annual Real Estate Forecast Thursday night, and it included the usual fireworks — news, wisdom, dire optimism, wacky taxes and some tough questions about energy rates to a woman at the top.

Almost a year after calling out Pacific Gas & Electric Co. in his 2024 State of the City Speech — telling its execs to “tighten their belts, as all of us are doing, and loosen up on some of those profits,” Mayor Jerry Dyer hosted PG&E CEO Patti Poppe for a “fireside chat” Thursday at the DoubleTree in Downtown Fresno.

The talk was cordial, despite Poppe describing Dyer’s lashing as giving her “holy hell.” Reporter Dylan Gonzales will detail the fireside chat in a story later Friday.

 

Build to rent in Fresno?

New home construction made its first appearance in the Real Estate Forecast, and DeYoung Homes President Ryan DeYoung delivered an optimistic update, propped up by insatiable demand for homes. But finding a property in the Fresno area to build on is difficult, he said. The most optimistic timeframe for delivering a project to market is 6-12 months. DeYoung said one of their projects was two decades in the making.

Build to rent (BTR) came up as an emerging model, where builders construct a community of homes for the rental market, and not for sale. It is generally geared to people who can afford more than an apartment but not quite a home.

DeYoung said DeYoung Homes has a contract to build a large BTR project, but he didn’t offer details as it is not inked yet.

 

Vacancy tax

Matthew Hargrove is a lobbyist and president and CEO of the California Business Properties Association (CBPA), which manages legislative, political and regulatory issues for commercial real estate.

A big item on his to-do list is Assembly Bill 98, which will go into effect Jan. 1, 2026. Among other mitigation measures, it requires buffer zones and truck routing plans for logistics projects.

The CBPA is working to tweak the bill to make it easier for county and city building and zoning departments to manage, to make sure projects can flow. He’s optimistic a fix can come this year.

Hargrove talked about “Death Star“ bills — those which can destroy entire planets. One this year is Senate Bill 789, a vacancy tax for commercial real estate. Introduced by Sen. Caroline Menjivar (D-Burbank), it would impose a $5 per square foot tax on properties deemed “vacant“ for 182 or more days in a calendar year.

Hargrove said his organization is tracking 400-500 bills for the current 2025-2026 session — about 150 actively. While he said the “wacky” bills get a lot of attention, they don’t represent the majority because “most legislators want to go up to Sacramento and do good policy.”

 

Insurance outlook

Alison Berry, Fresno area vice president and construction industry specialist for global insurance giant Gallagher, offered mitigation advice to owners for making their properites easier to insure. These include water leak detection systems, sprinkler systems and defensible space. But due to a number of factors, including the rising cost of reinsurance — insurance purchased from other insurers — insurance rates will remain high and coverage difficult to get for the time being.

 

Fulton Forum

Tyrone Roderick Williams, director of the Fresno Housing Authority, detailed the pipeline of affordable housing in Fresno County, which ranges from apartments to single-family homes. Hundreds of units have come been completed or are under construction.

The biggest project, which Roderick Williams called a “game changer,” has been dubbed Fulton Forum, with a plan for 300-400 total mixed-income units near the former CVS building in Downtown Fresno.

The first phase will be Fresno Housing’s project in the CVS footprint, “The Roost,” which will include 123 units.

He noted that 80% of Fresno Housing’s funding is federal, and as such is in a holding pattern. The only hope of more funding comes from a proposal for a $10 billion affordable housing bond that could go before voters in 2026.