The slow drum beat of recession is looming in the Golden State.

If you have read the New York Times, Los Angeles Times or Sacramento Bee lately – or listened to Gov. Jerry Brown himself – you’ve heard that California is past due for a downturn. The indicators are there, including a slowing housing market and export pain from the China tariffs.

When the state’s homeowners sit down to do their taxes in early 2019, they will be capped at $10,000 for deductions of state income and property taxes because of the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs act.

Here’s another sign: State Controller Betty T. Yee announced on Friday that state revenue projections for October came up short. The state received $6.57 billion in revenue for that month, about 6 percent lower than anticipated, with a $412.2 million shortfall.

While October sales tax figures came in higher that projected in the budget enacted in June, personal income tax (PIT) and corporation taxes – two branches of the state’s “big three” revenue sources –were lower than projected.

PIT receipts were down 8.4 percent for October, and corporation taxes down 11 percent. That’s not a good sign from the state’s business community.

For the first four months of fiscal 2018-19, revenues continue to be higher than projected by 3 percent, or $1.02 billion. Total revenues are also up 8.1 percent compared to the same period in 2017-18.

As California prepares to seat a new governor in Gavin Newsom with his “expensive” agenda, signs point to a reckoning in the near future.

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