Written by Gordon M. Webster Jr.
The end of the year is an important time for business owners to dig into their finances as they wrap up the tax year and prepare to flip the calendar.
That annual tradition has never been more important in Sacramento as the state continues to face an uncertain budget future.
The latest forecast from the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst found current revenues are coming in slightly ahead of expected, but spending is also accelerating to offset those gains.
The future budget outlook is more concerning, as noted recently by the California Chamber of Commerce. The Legislative Analyst forecasts future spending to grow at a historically rapid rate of nearly 6% in the next four years — nearly double the most recent average of 3.5%.
With revenue growth estimated at just 4%, the Legislative Analyst sees operating deficits in California’s future — about $20 billion in 2026-27 up to more than $25 billion in 2027-28.
The highest spending pressures are from in-home care programs, increased Medi-Cal spending for an aging population and higher costs from the health care minimum wage enacted last year.
The Analyst expressed concern for an underperforming California economy, described as “lackluster” and “sluggish.” Removing the government and health care sectors, employment has not grown in the Golden State in 18 months. Consumer spending and business owner income are down.
The California Legislature has its work cut out for it in 2025 — with matters more pressing than safeguarding liberal values. It’s about building more housing, putting the cost of living in check and keeping people and property safe.
And keeping out of the way of business.
Hardly anything Sacramento has done in the last four years has hit those goals. It’s up to the 35 news legislators who just took their seats to find a another way.