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A forecast of 2023’s housing market predicts that while finding a home will be much easier than in the past, the price of that home isn’t set to change much and the costs to do so will remain persistently high. But uncertainty in the market will make markets harder to predict.

Higher mortgage rates will continue to temper competition in home buying markets, according to the forecast from Realtor.com.

Analysts see average mortgage rates peaking at 7.4% following early interest hikes in 2023, but then softening to 7.1% by the end of the year.

This will offset any price decreases as the typical buyer in 2023 will face a 28% higher monthly payment than in 2022 at $2,430.

Market conditions will be harder for both buyers and sellers. A 3.9% expected growth in income will not be enough to make up for increases in mortgage rates or in home values, which are predicted to grow 5.4% nationally.

In Fresno, home sales are predicted to drop 13.7%, according to data, with home values increasing by only 2.2%.

For sale inventory is forecast to grow 22.8% year-over-year compared to 2022’s 4% year-over-year growth.

Equity for homeowners will increase as home prices climb. The typical homeowners is projected to gain $25,650 by the end of the year.

Rental growth is expected to outpace housing price growth at 6.3% year-over-year. Rents are expected to have risen 7.7% on average by the end of the year.

Analysts acknowledge a lot of variables in the upcoming year, however. Most markets have adjusted for supply chain disruptions, war in Ukraine and interest rate hikes. For these reasons, the study stated, the forecast doesn’t take into effect a recession and everything that comes with it. Small upticks in unemployment are projected, but buyers and sellers should keep an eye out for big swings in unemployment.

A recession may bring lower mortgage rates, but at the cost of buyers’ purchasing power, the report stated. For sellers, that could mean less demand and potential price drops.