UOP forecasts slow recovery for Fresno, state

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Published on 05/01/2012 - 2:34 pm

Written by Business Journal staff

Fresno is not exempt from the state’s anticipated slow recovery, according to the Business Forecasting Center at the University of the Pacific, which released its California & Metro Forecast on Tuesday. 

According to the forecast, most sectors in the Fresno Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) will see job growth in the second half of 2012.

Some of the leading industries anticipated are manufacturing with 6 percent growth, construction and mining with 3.7 percent growth, trade, transportation and utilities with 3.2 percent growth and health services with 3 percent growth.

The Fresno MSA population is expected to increase by 1 percent, but the workforce will only grow by 0.8 percent.

The unemployment rate for the area is expected to drop to 15.4 percent in 2012. By 2013 and 2014 the unemployment rate is expected to go down to 15 percent and 14 percent.

Real personal income in Fresno increased in 2011 by 3 percent to $26.4 billion and is expected to grow another 2.1 percent in 2012.

The state unemployment rate was at 11.9 percent in March and is expected to decline to 10 percent by the fall of 2013. Approximately 295,000 construction jobs are expected to be created over the next five years.